Politics

"It's the economy, stupid... Even now ?"

Indeed and it's been failing its citizens since the GFC so Politics are now and for the foreseeable future at the center stage of the world's economics and finance.

In addition, the ultimate resolution of the exponential debt trajectory of the world will be political in nature, so it tremendously matters to the world of finance.

When we refer to politics it is important to differentiate the state of the world pre-2016 and post-2016:

• Pre-2016 politics have broadly been defined by the Left/Right divide of mainstream political parties who have ruled most of the industrialized world since WWII. Also, to a large extent the G7 Central Banks are a by-product of this political class as they took on an exponential role in maintaining the status quo via monetary means.
• 2016 is the year of a seismic shift within the broad electorate away from these parties and towards what is now labelled 'populism'. 2016 marks the year of the Brexit referendum, the election of Donald Trump and the beginning of a wave of other populist leaders taking the lead. Post-2016 has seen these leaders trying to reshuffle the cards, break existing rules and create new ones in both national politics, trade and geopolitics while their economies have fundamentally been driven by the existing fiscal and monetary loose policies and hence not delivering real change to their voters.
• 2022 marks the end of the Covid pandemic and the start of the conflict in Ukraine, both triggering supply-chain and inflation shocks of epic proportions. Politicians and Central Banks have been discredited and this is a Brand New World opening up.

In this section we explore the potential scenarios going forward identifying themes and currents in national politics, geopolitics and if none of these actually produce the desired outcome we explore the world from a defense and military standpoint.

Sections:
National Politics
Geopolitics
Security & Defense